On June 11, 2026, the Super Middleweight division will witness a compelling contest as Mathieu W. and Falcao E. compete for the prestigious NABF Title. This bout is more than just a championship fight; it's a crucial stepping stone for both athletes looking to elevate their careers on the international stage. Boxing aficionados in Nigeria will be keen to see which fighter can impose their will and claim this significant regional belt, setting the tone for their future aspirations in the competitive Super Middleweight landscape.

This NABF Super Middleweight title fight is anticipated to be a highly technical affair, a chess match between two skilled practitioners. Mathieu W. is known for his disciplined boxing and intelligent ring generalship, often outpointing opponents with superior technique. Falcao E. brings a blend of power and precision, capable of both boxing from a distance and engaging in calculated exchanges. The fight script likely involves a feeling-out process in the early rounds, with both fighters establishing their jabs and looking for openings. Expect a strategic battle that could go the distance, with judges' scorecards playing a crucial role in the outcome.

Mathieu W. is a classic out-boxer, relying on a sharp jab, excellent footwork, and defensive responsibility to control the pace and distance. His offensive output is measured but highly efficient, focusing on clean, scoring punches. Falcao E. is a more versatile fighter, capable of switching between boxing and applying intelligent pressure. He possesses good hand speed and power, often looking to land eye-catching combinations. Defensively, Falcao uses head movement and a high guard, but can be vulnerable when committing to power shots. Ring generalship will be a key battleground, with Mathieu aiming to keep Falcao at bay.

Mathieu W. stands at 182cm with a 185cm reach, fighting from an orthodox stance. Falcao E. is slightly shorter at 180cm with a 183cm reach, also orthodox. These dimensions suggest a fairly even physical matchup, with Mathieu holding a marginal reach advantage that he will look to exploit with his jab. Both fighters are seasoned professionals in their early thirties, bringing a wealth of experience and maturity to this Super Middleweight title contest.

• Mathieu W.: W-W-D-W-L (Last 5 Fights)
• Falcao E.: W-W-L-W-W (Last 5 Fights)

• Mathieu W. lands 16.5 significant strikes per round with an impressive 45% accuracy.
• Falcao E. maintains a solid 17.0 significant strikes per round at 39% accuracy.
• Mathieu's defensive skills limit opponents to 10.0 strikes absorbed per round.
• Falcao absorbs 13.0 strikes per round, indicating a slightly more open defense.
• Knockdown probability is low for both, with Mathieu at 0.1 and Falcao at 0.2 per fight.
• Both fighters demonstrate excellent stamina, capable of going the full championship distance.

Mathieu's tactical theme will be to establish his jab early, control the center of the ring, and maintain distance to prevent Falcao from unleashing his power. He will focus on accumulating points with clean, accurate shots. Falcao, conversely, will aim to cut off the ring, force Mathieu into exchanges, and land his heavier combinations. Exploiting any moments of defensive lapse from Mathieu after he throws his own combinations will be crucial for Falcao.

Mathieu W. is known for his excellent defensive responsibility, utilizing head movement, footwork, and a tight guard to minimize damage. His chin has proven durable, though he rarely puts himself in positions to test it severely. Falcao E. also possesses a solid chin and good defensive fundamentals, but his willingness to engage in exchanges sometimes leaves him open to counter-punches. Both fighters are generally durable and difficult to stop.

Neither Mathieu W. nor Falcao E. are considered one-punch knockout artists, but both possess enough power to hurt opponents. Mathieu's knockdown pressure comes from accumulation and precision, wearing down opponents over rounds. Falcao has slightly more concussive power, capable of stunning opponents with well-timed hooks and uppercuts. While a stoppage is possible, this fight is more likely to be decided by skill and strategy over raw power, with knockdowns being less frequent.

Both Mathieu W. and Falcao E. are known for their exceptional conditioning and ability to maintain a high work rate over 12 rounds. Mathieu's disciplined style allows him to conserve energy, often finishing strong. Falcao's blend of boxing and pressure also ensures he has gas in the tank for the championship rounds. Momentum swings will likely be subtle, based on who is landing the cleaner, more effective punches in each round, rather than dramatic shifts in energy levels.

• Expected Rounds Total: 11.5
• Mathieu W. KO/TKO Probability: 5%
• Falcao E. KO/TKO Probability: 15%
• Mathieu W. Points Probability: 45%
• Falcao E. Points Probability: 30%
• Draw Probability: 5%
• Under Rounds Line Probability: 35%
• Over Rounds Line Probability: 65%
• Mathieu W. Sig. Strikes Landed/Round: 16.5
• Falcao E. Sig. Strikes Landed/Round: 17.0
• Mathieu W. Sig. Strike Accuracy: 45%
• Falcao E. Sig. Strike Accuracy: 39%
• Mathieu W. Strikes Absorbed/Round: 10.0
• Falcao E. Strikes Absorbed/Round: 13.0
• Mathieu W. Expected Knockdowns: 0.1
• Falcao E. Expected Knockdowns: 0.2
• Mathieu W. Knockdown Defense: 95%
• Falcao E. Knockdown Defense: 90%
• Mathieu W. Aggression Index: 65
• Falcao E. Aggression Index: 75
• Mathieu W. Clutch Round Win Probability: 53%
• Falcao E. Clutch Round Win Probability: 47%

Our analytical model predicts a closely fought contest likely to go the distance. Mathieu W. has a 45% chance of winning by points, leveraging his technical superiority. Falcao E. has a 30% chance of winning by points, and a 15% chance of winning by KO/TKO, reflecting his power. A KO/TKO victory for Mathieu is 5%. The probability of a draw is estimated at 5%.

The NABF Super Middleweight title fight between Mathieu W. and Falcao E. is poised to be a tactical masterclass. Mathieu's technical prowess and defensive acumen will be tested by Falcao's balanced attack and power. While Falcao possesses the greater knockout threat, Mathieu's ability to control the fight's tempo and land scoring punches makes him a strong contender for a decision victory in a compelling contest.